Transit leaders said they have begun “the process to explore transitioning to bus service” as a bill to discontinue operations advanced in the Minnesota House.
By Hank Long
Alpha News
After 15 years of falling well below its ridership projections, the once-anticipated Northstar Commuter Rail appears to be on the fast track to ceasing its operations.
The 40-mile commuter rail line runs from north to south with end points at Target Field in Minneapolis and Big Lake, with five suburban stops in between. It opened in 2009 with a measure of equal parts optimism and skepticism over whether it would convert enough daily automobile commuters in a growing suburban corridor into public transit users.
On Monday, a bill that would shutter the Northstar line due to its dismal ridership numbers cleared a transportation committee in the Minnesota House. It is now headed for a full floor vote.
“It’s time to mothball this boondoggle,” said Rep. Jon Koznick, R-Lakeville, chief author of HF269, which would direct the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) and the Metropolitan Council to request approval from the Federal Transit Administration to discontinue Northstar Commuter Rail service without reimbursing the federal government.
“It has had ridiculously low ridership, ridiculously huge operating subsidies, and ridiculously expensive maintenance costs,” added Koznick.
$320M project immediately fell below expectations
The project had been studied and debated years prior to its opening, with public transit enthusiasts pointing out that the line was serving one of the fastest growing population corridors in the state between Minneapolis and St. Cloud.
Actual ridership fell well below projected estimates in the line’s first year of operation, and even in its peak ridership year of 2017, the commuter line was still averaging fewer riders per day than necessary to pay for itself.
After the COVID-19 pandemic Northstar ridership plummeted by more than 80 percent, and it’s never rebounded. In 2023, the line provided fewer than 100,000 rides, down from nearly 800,000 in 2019. Testifiers told the committee that the Northstar line has the highest passenger subsidy among like-size commuter lines in the nation.
Annually, the Northstar line takes in just more than $300,000 in fares, compared to about $12 million in operating costs.
“The Northstar Line has the lowest farebox recovery of any commuter rail line in the country,” said Annette Meeks, a former chair of the Met Council’s transportation committee, who testified in support of the bill on Monday. “There is no customer base for Northstar, nor will there ever be. But more importantly it’s taking money away from transit systems that could use that, including bus service and light rail service inside the metro area.”
Democrats express caution over shuttering Northstar
Koznick’s bill passed on a divided voice vote with a handful of Democrats expressing opposition to the bill even as they acknowledged the ridership rates.
“We need more transportation options, not fewer,” said Rep. Lucy Rehm, DFL-Chanhassen. “So I am concerned about making any quick movement here to stop what we have in place.”
While Rehm said she would add her voice “to the chorus of people who think we need to slow this thing down,” the chair of the Metropolitan Council did not appear to be in her camp.
“At this point we have to agree that we know travel patterns have changed,” said Met Council Chair Charlie Zelle. “If those resources can be deployed more effectively for this area of the metro, we think we can do actually a better job.”
Zelle’s comments came after MnDOT and the Metropolitan Council released a joint statement earlier in the day signaling both agencies are ready to transition away from the Northstar line and pivot to bus service.
“MnDOT’s recent Twin Cities-St. Cloud-Fargo/Moorhead Corridor study makes it clear we can provide more cost-effective transit service in the corridor currently being served by Northstar Commuter Rail,” MnDOT and the Met Council said in the statement. “We have jointly started the process to explore transitioning to bus service in this corridor.”
Annual operating costs for the Northstar line average about $12 million. Koznick said he was pleased to hear that the Met Council is in favor of exploring a bus route to service the corridor, which would cost about $2 million annually.
Project still has outstanding loans
Koznick’s bill would require MnDOT and the Met Council to file a waiver request to seek federal loan forgiveness, which Rep. Erin Koegel, DFL-Spring Lake Park, estimated would be in the $85-$90 million range.
“That doesn’t sound like a deal the Trump-Musk administration would take,” she said. “It would kind of be a bad deal; so I think if you came before him, he’d say, ‘You’re fired.’”
But Republicans in the hearing fired back that the state would be better off in a matter of years by paying off that outstanding balance, should a federal waiver be denied, instead of letting the Northstar line continue to run.
“We’re balking at a 5-10 year return on investment if we end it today,” said Rep. Bjorn Olson, R-Fairmont. “Let’s just put the closed sign on it today and quit paying for it, and if we have to pay back $90 million worth of loans, guess what? That return on investment is years away, not 300 years away.”
